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People who “believe” in the Singularity are happy to give post-Singularity AI incredible power, as what will happen afterwards is quite unpredictable.

I put the word believe in scare quotes as belief in the singularity can often seem like a religious belief.

Below I outline seven ways of thinking that lead to mistaken predictions about robotics and Artificial Intelligence.

We find instances of these ways of thinking in many of the predictions about our AI future. Research on AGI is an attempt to distinguish a thinking entity from current day AI technology such as Machine Learning.

He proposes rather sensible ways of thinking about regulations for Artificial Intelligence deployment, rather than the chicken little “the sky is falling” calls for regulation of research and knowledge that we have seen from people who really, really, should know a little better. [I try to maintain professional language, but sometimes…] For instance, it appears to say that we will go from 1 million grounds and maintenance workers in the US to only 50,000 in 10 to 20 years, because robots will take over those jobs.

Today, there is a story in Market Watch that robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. How many robots are currently operational in those jobs? How many realistic demonstrations have there been of robots working in this arena? Similar stories apply to all the other job categories in this diagram where it is suggested that there will be massive disruptions of 90%, and even as much as 97%, in jobs that currently require physical presence at some particular job site.

Alternate areas such as Artificial Life, and Simulation of Adaptive Behavior did make some progress in getting full creatures in the eighties and nineties (these two areas and communities were where I spent my time during those years), but they have stalled.

My own opinion is that of course this is possible in principle.

For some it comes with an additional benefit of being able to upload their minds to an intelligent computer, and so get eternal life without the inconvenience of having to believe in a standard sort of supernatural God.

The ever powerful technologically based AI is the new God for them. Some people have very specific ideas about when the day of salvation will come–followers of one particular Singularity prophet believe that it will happen in the year 2029, as it has been written.

Mistaken predictions lead to fear of things that are not going to happen.

Why are people making mistakes in predictions about Artificial Intelligence and robotics, so that Oren Etzioni, I, and others, need to spend time pushing back on them?

We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics.

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